甘源食品（002991）：半年报业绩预告大幅下降，基本面好转还需等待

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing an active adjustment period in 2025, with short-term pressure on revenue and profit. The latest interim performance forecast has led to a downward adjustment in key assumptions regarding sales growth, channel expansion pace, and expense ratio improvement. However, the long-term product and channel expansion logic remains unchanged. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.33, 4.08, and 4.68 yuan respectively, down from previous forecasts of 5.37 and 6.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026. Given the company's multi-brand and multi-channel layout, the recovery in profitability is highly certain. A price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2025 is suggested, corresponding to a target price of 63.27 yuan, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected financial performance for 2023A to 2027E is as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 1,848 (2023A), 2,257 (2024A), 2,341 (2025E), 2,668 (2026E), 2,985 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 22.2%, 3.7%, 13.9%, and 11.9% respectively [7][12] - Operating profit (million yuan): 406 (2023A), 441 (2024A), 368 (2025E), 450 (2026E), 516 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 91.7%, 8.7%, -16.6%, 22.4%, and 14.6% respectively [7][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 329 (2023A), 376 (2024A), 310 (2025E), 381 (2026E), 436 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 107.8%, 14.3%, -17.5%, 22.6%, and 14.7% respectively [7][12] - Earnings per share (yuan): 3.53 (2023A), 4.04 (2024A), 3.33 (2025E), 4.08 (2026E), 4.68 (2027E) [7][12] Market Performance Summary - The company's absolute performance over different time frames is as follows: - 1 week: +0.75% - 1 month: -4.07% - 3 months: -20.17% - 12 months: +18.59% [2]