Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-28 09:46Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 84.00 CNY, while the current price is 56.40 CNY [6][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Heng Rui Medicine has entered a significant licensing agreement with GSK for the PDE3/4 inhibitor HRS9821 and 11 preclinical projects, marking its entry into the global respiratory competition [2][12]. - The licensing deal includes an upfront payment of 500 million USD and a total milestone payment of 12 billion CNY, indicating strong potential for revenue growth [12][16]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust pipeline, with over 30 projects having potential for external licensing, particularly in the respiratory field [12][18]. Financial Summary - The financial projections for Heng Rui Medicine show a steady increase in revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2027, with expected revenues of 228.2 billion CNY in 2023, growing to 508.3 billion CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.8% [4][27]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 43.0 billion CNY in 2023 to 137.8 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][27]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.65 CNY in 2023 to 2.09 CNY in 2027, indicating strong profitability [4][27]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Heng Rui Medicine's collaboration with GSK enhances its competitive position in the respiratory market, as GSK is a leading player with a significant focus on COPD treatments [18][21]. - The report notes that GSK's respiratory business generated 8.997 billion GBP in 2024, accounting for 29% of its total revenue, showcasing the importance of this segment [19][21]. - The partnership is seen as a validation of Heng Rui Medicine's capabilities and potential in the global market, particularly in the development of innovative therapies [18][19].