神火股份（000933）：电解铝业领风骚，多元发展启华章

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aluminum industry, benefiting from cost advantages in its dual production bases in Yunnan and Xinjiang, and enjoys a low-carbon premium for its hydropower aluminum [4]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term due to resilient demand in the context of global green low-carbon development [2][4]. - The company has a well-integrated industrial chain, with significant growth potential in its aluminum foil business, which is expected to contribute to future profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1998, is a prominent producer of electrolytic aluminum and coal, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.7 million tons per year as of the end of 2024 [1][14]. - It controls coal reserves of 1.286 billion tons, with an exploitable reserve of 587 million tons, making it one of the major producers of smokeless coal in China [1][14]. Aluminum Sector - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by domestic capacity limits and ongoing "dual carbon" policies, leading to reduced supply elasticity [2]. - The company benefits from low-cost electricity in Xinjiang due to abundant coal resources, enhancing its profitability in that region [2]. - The hydropower advantage in Yunnan is expected to become more pronounced as low-carbon policies continue to advance [2]. Coal Sector - The company’s coal production capacity includes 3.45 million tons per year of smokeless coal and 5.1 million tons per year of lean coal, with a strong cost control capability leading to higher profit margins [3]. - New coal projects are anticipated to enhance profitability, with ongoing developments in the Xinjiang region expected to improve self-sufficiency in coal resources [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.2 billion, 6.3 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.3, 6.8, and 6.1, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.37 billion yuan in 2024 to 47.03 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.5% [5].