Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that trading positions should temporarily wait and see. Although the bond market prices rebounded significantly on the day, it is still not out of the adverse situation. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, and there is a risk of a second decline if risk assets rebound or there are new positive factors for risk appetite. It also mentions to pay attention to events such as the FOMC, Sino - US talks, and the Politburo meeting during this macro - super week [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher, then declined during the session, and finally closed sharply higher across the board. The long - end, which was greatly affected by sentiment before, also had more corrections [1]. - The open market continued net investment. The due reverse repurchase was 170.7 billion yuan, and new operations were 495.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The capital price continued to improve, with the DR001 weighted average falling to around 1.45% and the GC001 closing at around 1.35% at the end of the session [1]. 3.2. News The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments held on July 28 mentioned implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidating the industrial economic base, implementing a new round of stable - growth actions for ten key industries, formulating a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, and formulating guidelines for financial support for new - style industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis - The domestic market is trading around the reversal of the anti - involution sentiment, and the overall situation is still sentiment - driven. The A - share market showed strong resilience as a risk asset, with obvious sector rotation [3]. - For the bond market, although the price rebounded significantly, it is still facing challenges. The capital interest rate has not returned to the previous lower platform of 1.3 - 1.35%, and the market is passive, mainly affected by sentiment [3]. 3.4. Data - Contract Data: Detailed data on the prices, changes, positions, and basis of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts are provided, as well as the trading volume of the main contracts [3]. - Funding Rate Data: Data on DR001, DR007, DR014, including their weighted average interest rates, changes, and trading volumes, are presented [3].
国债期货日报:情绪反转-20250728