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南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250729

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The recent rise in tin prices is mainly due to the boost of the non - ferrous metal sector from anti - involution, with little change in its own fundamentals. Given the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin and its suppression of the downstream, the price increase is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, lower - than - expected复产 in Myanmar, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. Bearish Factors - Fluctuations in tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Market Data Tin Futures - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 267,880 yuan/ton, 267,880 yuan/ton, and 267,960 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 33,670 US dollars/ton, down 470 US dollars (-1.38%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.94, up 0.08 (1.02%) [6]. Tin Spot - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 268,800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 256,800 yuan/ton, 260,800 yuan/ton, 174,750 yuan/ton, 182,250 yuan/ton, and 274,750 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1,600 yuan/ton (0.6%), 200 yuan/ton (40%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.63%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.62%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.58%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.55%), and 1,500 yuan/ton (0.55%) respectively [9]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,369 tons, up 244 tons (3.42%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,771 tons, up 135 tons (2.91%), and in Shanghai is 1,717 tons, up 109 tons (6.78%). The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 50 tons (2.96%) [18]. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 19,074.74 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,411.52 yuan (-11.22%). The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [19].