南华期货铜风险管理日报-20250729

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impacts on copper are limited. Downstream anti - involution is more negative than positive for demand, and the hydropower station's early - stage copper demand is low. The increase in copper prices seems to be a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. Short - term copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution hype fades. This week is a macro super - week with significant events that will cause large copper price fluctuations [3] Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] - Raw Material Management: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, low LME inventory levels, low - hovering US dollar index, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - Likely Negative Factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6] - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.32%) [8] - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: Price is 7,8960 yuan/ton, with no daily change [8] - LME Copper 3M: Price is 9,762.5 dollars/ton, down 33.5 dollars (-0.34%) [8] - Shanghai - London Ratio: The ratio is 8.12, up 0.06 (0.74%) [8] Copper Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper: Price is 79,075 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - Shanghai Wumaotrade: Price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan (-0.55%) [10] - Guangdong Nanchu: Price is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - Yangtze Non - ferrous: Price is 79,270 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.46%) [10] Copper Scrap Spread - Current Scrap Spread (Tax - included): Price is 959.89 yuan/ton, up 119.15 yuan (14.17%) [12] - Reasonable Scrap Spread (Tax - included): Price is 1,490.45 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.13%) [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange Copper Warehouse Receipts: Total is 17,832 tons, up 1,699 tons (10.53%) [15] - LME Copper Inventory: Total is 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons (-0.84%) [17] - COMEX Copper Inventory: Total is 250,819 tons, up 7,456 tons (3.06%) [20] Copper Import and Processing - Copper Import Profit and Loss: Price is - 341.58 yuan/ton, up 140.92 yuan (-29.21%) [21] - Copper Concentrate TC: Price is - 42.75 dollars/ton, with no change [21]