NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-29 06:08Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys)" dated July 29, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimistic expectations of China's anti-involution policy are initially alleviated, and the reality of loose supply and demand suppresses domestic aluminum prices. Traditional consumption off - season inventory accumulation expectations also have a negative impact on prices [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Alumina Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, which may increase domestic bauxite production and import in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and construction projects are in progress, which may increase China's alumina production in July. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian Bintan Alumina Phase III project and SPIC's Guinea Aluminum Project Phase II may increase overseas alumina production in July [3] Investment Strategy - Due to the increase in the price of imported Guinea bauxite pushing up production costs, but the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the loose supply - demand expectation, the alumina price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3] Basis and Month - Spread - The alumina basis is negative and at a low level, and the month - spread is positive and basically at a low level. It is recommended that investors go long on the alumina basis at low levels [12] Inventory - The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has increased compared with last week [13][15] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: Multiple domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity transfer and new construction projects may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,650 yuan/ton [4][58] - Import: Multiple overseas factors may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum imports in July [4][61] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [5] Basis and Month - Spread - The Shanghai aluminum basis and month - spread are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see [37] - The LME aluminum (0 - 3) month - spread is positive and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) month - spread is negative. It is recommended that investors wait and see for LME aluminum month - spread arbitrage opportunities [40] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with last week. The inventory in the bonded area has decreased, and the inventory in LME and COMEX has changed differently [42][44] Aluminum Alloys Supply - Side Situation - Scrap aluminum: The production and import of Chinese scrap aluminum in July may increase due to the positive and rising daily spread between refined and scrap aluminum [64][66] - Primary aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese primary aluminum alloy is 20,550 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remains flat compared with last week [69] - Recycled aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton with negative profit, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with last week [77] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is still in the red. Due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy, the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 19,900 and the pressure level around 20,200 - 20,300 [7] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloys has increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased [87][90] Downstream Processing Enterprises - The weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises has decreased compared with last week due to the intersection of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [93][95]