【平安固收】2025年6月机构行为思考：risk on背景下需要关注什么？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth of bond custody scale decreased, with the growth rate of custody balance dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 14.9%. The main contributor to the decrease was inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs), while interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. Government bonds maintained a year - on - year increase [5][10]. - Except for foreign investors continuing to reduce their bond holdings, the overall bond - allocation strength of institutions was not weak. Different types of institutions had different bond - allocation preferences and reasons [6]. - Looking ahead, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of equities and the evolution of the pressure on the liability side of funds. The bond supply situation in July is expected to be similar to that in June, and the net supply of government bonds is expected to decline from August to September, which may relieve the supply pressure on the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in June - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance in June 2025 was 14.9%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from May. The newly - added custody scale was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 176.9 billion yuan [5][10]. - Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - bank bonds) and financial bonds were the main types with year - on - year increases, especially government bonds. In June, treasury bonds increased by about 20 billion yuan year - on - year, and local government bonds increased by about 28 billion yuan year - on - year. NCDs decreased significantly, and the net supply turned negative, continuing the downward trend since the second quarter [5]. 3.2 Bond - Allocation by Institutions in June - Banks: The growth rate of the deposit - loan difference continued to rise, and bond investment maintained a year - on - year increase. Structurally, they preferred local government bonds [6][39]. - Insurance companies: They increased their bond - allocation in June, mainly adding local government bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds. On one hand, the bond market was bullish in June; on the other hand, the growth rate of insurance premiums in the second quarter rebounded [44]. - Unincorporated products: Although the year - on - year increase was significantly lower, affected by the high base of manual interest supplementation last year, the actual bond - allocation strength was not weak. They reduced their holdings of NCDs and increased their holdings of active varieties such as treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - Foreign investors: They continued the selling trend in May, mainly because the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar led to a decrease in the carry - trade income of foreign institutions [6]. - Securities firms: They increased their bond holdings by 151.4 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 52.9 billion yuan. After net selling in May, they replenished some bond positions in June [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Supply side: In July, the bond structure is likely to continue the situation in June, with government bonds increasing and NCDs remaining at a low level. It is expected that the net supply of government bonds will decline from August to September, and the supply pressure on the bond market may be relieved [7]. - Institutional side - Banks: With high asset growth and sufficient liabilities, it is expected that banks will maintain a high level of bond - allocation [7]. - Insurance companies: Attention should be paid to whether the rising stock market will affect the bond - allocation rhythm of insurance companies [7]. - General asset - management accounts: The liability side of wealth management products is relatively stable, while funds need to pay attention to the redemption pressure that may be brought about by the continuous adjustment of the bond and money markets [7].