CGWS(SZ:002939) Great Wall Securities·2025-07-29 09:32Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current bullish foundation of the bond market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - The implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 still has a probability [2]. - The central point of the appropriate yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is around 1.7%. As long - term topics cool down, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Although the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the China - US negotiations in early August may cause bond market fluctuations, the overall yield center is difficult to deviate significantly without new interest rate cut expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - Funding Rates: From July 21 to July 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, with a 16BP increase in funding cost; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, with a 15BP increase. The 7 - day rates fluctuated more significantly across the month, with DR007 rising 16BP to 1.65% and FR007 rising 25BP to 1.75% [11]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank's reverse repurchase volume continued to increase, with a total of 1656.3 billion yuan. With a large total maturity of 1726.8 billion yuan, a net capital withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan was finally achieved. The central bank also conducted a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 495.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [11][27]. - Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 259BP, and the inversion increased in July. The 2 - year and 10 - year spreads between Chinese and US bonds were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [17]. - Term Spread: The US bond term spread contracted, while the Chinese bond term spread changed little. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.43%, and the 10 - year was 1.73%, with the 10 - 2 - year spread slightly widening from 29BP to 30BP. The US bond yield continued to correct, with the 2 - year rising to 3.91% and the 10 - year to 4.40%, and the 10 - 2 - year term spread narrowing from 53BP to 49BP [20]. - Interest Rate Term Structure: The yields of both Chinese and US bonds corrected last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall correction range of Chinese bond yields, except for the 3 - month period, was around 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - end of the US bond yield had the largest correction range, with a 5BP correction in the 3 - 5 - year period [21]. 2. Last Week's Key Bond Market Events - LPR Remained Unchanged: On July 21, the new LPR quotes released by the People's Bank of China remained unchanged, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus variety at 3.5% [33]. - Futures Market Cooling Measures: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits. After the cooling measures were released, the trading volume of coking coal and lithium carbonate futures decreased by more than 20%, with the total trading volume decreasing by more than 1.7 million lots [27].