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海大集团(002311):饲料增量接近全年目标,海外市场保持高增速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 588.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.4 billion yuan, up 24.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is close to achieving its annual feed sales growth target, with an external sales increase of approximately 284 million tons in the first half of 2025, nearing the annual target of over 300 million tons [4][8] - The overseas feed sales maintained a high growth rate of 40% year-on-year, indicating strong market expansion [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross profit margin of 9.79% in its feed business, showing a slight year-on-year increase [5] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 was 26.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.6% increase after excluding non-recurring items [3] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to reach 1397.9 billion yuan, 1580.6 billion yuan, and 1790.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 13.1%, and 13.3% respectively [8][10] Market Position - The company’s feed sales volume reached approximately 14.7 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 25% [5] - The company’s market share in the industrial feed sector has further increased, with total national industrial feed production reaching 158.5 million tons, up 7.7% year-on-year [5] Product Segmentation - The company’s poultry feed external sales were about 7.3 million tons, growing approximately 24% year-on-year, while pig feed external sales increased by about 43% to 3.4 million tons [5][6] - The company is actively developing a comprehensive service system for pig farming groups, which has led to rapid growth in feed product sales to these clients [7] Future Outlook - The company expects to see steady growth in pig slaughtering volumes, with projections of 660 million heads in 2025, 693 million in 2026, and 728 million in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10%, 5%, and 5% respectively [8] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage by expanding its service offerings across the entire aquaculture value chain, including high-quality seedling and health management services [6][8]