Tesla(US:TSLA) Huaan Securities·2025-07-30 06:21Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Maintain "Buy" [2] Core Views - The automotive business faces increasing short-term headwinds, with a focus on the progress of Robotaxi promotion [2] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $22.496 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 1.0%, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 0.64% [5] - The automotive segment generated revenue of $19.707 billion, down 12.4% year-over-year, but exceeded Bloomberg's expectations by 2.83% [5] - The company aims to cover half of the U.S. population with Robotaxi services by the end of the year, having successfully launched its first RoboTaxi service in Austin [6] - The adoption rate of Full Self-Driving (FSD) is increasing, with FSD vehicles being ten times safer than non-FSD vehicles [6] - The company expects revenues of $88.348 billion, $108.381 billion, and $135.276 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year changes of -9.6%, +22.7%, and +24.8% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2025 operating profit was $0.923 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 42.5%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of $0.809 billion [5] - GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was $1.172 billion, down 20.7% year-over-year, which was below Bloomberg's consensus by 1.11% [5] - The company anticipates a significant drop in demand due to the expiration of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit in the U.S. by the end of Q3 [6] - The company faced approximately $300 million in tariff impacts in Q2, with full effects expected to manifest in subsequent quarters [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $88.348 billion, $108.381 billion, and $135.276 billion, respectively [9] - Expected NON-GAAP net profits for the same years are $5.180 billion, $9.186 billion, and $14.257 billion, with year-over-year changes of -34.9%, +77.3%, and +55.2% [9]