Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-30 08:34Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply side of asphalt has slightly declined due to the shutdown of some refineries and the conversion to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory structure, factory warehouses are reducing inventory while social warehouses are slow in destocking. Speculative demand is weakening, and traders are actively reducing inventory. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, but the cracking spread remains high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season due to rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. On a single - side basis, the absolute price shows a volatile trend because the cost - end crude oil performs strongly, and the month - spread, basis, and cracking have all weakened to a certain extent. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand side will enter the peak season as the construction conditions improve in the north and south in August. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds are alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still expected. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the asphalt cost side, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors of consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 8.95% [1] Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about asphalt price drops, for enterprises with long spot exposure, they can short the asphalt futures (bu2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, for those with short spot exposure, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry range is 3300 - 3400 [1] Market Data of Asphalt Price and Basis - Spot Price: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot price was 3720 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton), and the South China spot price was 3580 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3] - Spot 09 Basis: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot 09 basis was 166 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 85 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 161 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change), the North China spot 09 basis was 101 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 39 yuan/ton (no daily or weekly change) [3][6] - Cracking Spread: On July 30, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 133.3921 yuan/barrel (a daily increase of 1.7329 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 41.7873 yuan/barrel), and the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 104.6263 yuan/barrel (no daily change and a weekly decrease of 27.0577 yuan/barrel) [6] Factors Affecting the Asphalt Market - Positive Factors: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of rush - work in the south; the "anti - involution" atmosphere is strong, and there is a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][5] - Negative Factors: The arrival of Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey) in recent days has increased; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social warehouses has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [5]