行远自迩，笃行不怠：航空发动机长尾效应浅析

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the aerospace and defense sector, including 航发动力, 图南股份, 华秦科技, 航亚科技, 航材股份, and 应流股份 [10]. Core Insights - The aerospace engine market is expected to experience significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a substantial aftermarket potential exceeding 400 billion yuan over the next 20 years, driven by the high-value consumable nature of military engines [2][6][7]. - The maintenance market for military aerospace engines is projected to account for over 50% of the total lifecycle cost, indicating a strong demand for repair and maintenance services [6][25]. - The report highlights that the aftermarket for aerospace engines is approximately four times larger than the new engine market, with a significant portion of costs attributed to materials and maintenance [7][60]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The military aerospace engine's consumable nature necessitates multiple repairs throughout its lifecycle, with the lifespan of military aircraft often exceeding that of their engines [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the increasing frequency of engine replacements due to operational demands and technological advancements [21]. Aftermarket Potential - The future aftermarket space for military aerospace engines is estimated at approximately 428.74 billion yuan over the next 20 years, with an average annual market value of 21.44 billion yuan [7][57]. - The breakdown of the aftermarket includes approximately 5% for spare engines, 22% for engine repairs, and 51% for spare parts [60]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for maintenance and repair services will enhance the revenue and profitability of engine manufacturers, particularly as domestic production rates increase [8][14]. - The control systems segment of aerospace engines is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of the maintenance and replacement market [8][16]. Company Performance - The report notes that key companies like 航发动力 have shown robust revenue growth in their aerospace engine and derivative product segments, with projected growth rates of 19% to 22% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [39][40].