Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-30 14:58Group 1 - The bond market experienced a rise in yields across most varieties in July, with significant increases in long-term government bonds [3][7] - The overall credit spread for all credit bond varieties narrowed, indicating improved market sentiment [3][9] - The default amount in July increased to 4.78 billion, reflecting ongoing credit risks in the market [3][27] Group 2 - The U.S. economy showed signs of divergence, with steady job growth and a mixed performance in manufacturing and services sectors [3][33] - Domestic economic indicators revealed strong industrial production growth of 6.8% year-on-year in June, while demand showed weakness [3][50] - The high-frequency macro diffusion index for July indicated a seasonal rebound in domestic economic growth momentum [3][76][81] Group 3 - The monetary policy in July saw a net withdrawal of 502.2 billion in the open market, with limited net injections [3][94] - The MLF operations in July resulted in a net injection of 100 billion, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [3][98] - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, with an emphasis on counter-cyclical adjustments [3][102] Group 4 - The implied interest rate path for floating-rate bonds suggests a decline in the 1-year LPR to 2.8% by 2027, reflecting market expectations of future rate cuts [3][104][118] - The analysis of floating-rate bonds indicates a consistent pattern of expected rate cuts followed by increases, with government bonds showing stronger implied rate cut expectations compared to agricultural development bonds [3][126]