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甘李药业(603087):创新药数据频出,GZR18降糖效果亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in earnings per share, with projections of 1.91, 2.40, and 2.84 yuan for 2025-2027 respectively [3]. - The target price is set at 70.67 yuan based on a 37x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting a strong growth outlook [3]. - The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in revenue from 2,608 million yuan in 2023 to 6,115 million yuan in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.0% from 2025 to 2026 [5][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,608 million yuan in 2023 to 6,115 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.3%, 16.8%, 38.0%, 23.3%, and 18.0% respectively [5][12]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 315 million yuan in 2023 to 2,014 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 155.4%, 100.3%, 115.5%, 25.4%, and 18.0% [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 340 million yuan in 2023 to 1,704 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 177.4%, 80.7%, 87.0%, 25.5%, and 18.1% [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 73.3% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2027, while net margin is expected to increase from 13.0% to 27.9% over the same period [5][12]. Clinical and Product Development Insights - The company has several promising products in its pipeline, including GZR18, which has shown superior glucose-lowering effects compared to competitors in clinical trials [10]. - GZR4, an insulin formulation, has also demonstrated significant efficacy in clinical trials, indicating strong potential for future revenue growth [10].