NIKE(US:NKE) Changjiang Securities·2025-07-30 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9] Core Insights - The U.S. apparel industry is expected to transition from weak replenishment to passive accumulation of inventory due to weak retail performance and expectations [2][6] - The overall inventory levels in the U.S. apparel sector are now considered healthy, shifting from a stable state to an upward trend [4][19] - The demand side remains pressured, with U.S. apparel retail growth stagnating around 0% since May 2022, indicating a weak overall consumption environment [5][37] Summary by Sections Inventory Cycle - The U.S. inventory cycle serves as an effective indicator for assessing manufacturing sentiment [4][16] - Historical transitions from inventory depletion to accumulation phases have typically led to stock price increases for manufacturing companies [4][16] - Current inventory levels in the U.S. apparel sector are healthy, with most brands, except Nike, returning to a healthy inventory state [4][22] Demand Dynamics - The U.S. apparel retail growth has been stagnant, with consumer confidence significantly weakened since 2025 [5][37] - The North American market remains the most pressured, with most brands experiencing a decline in revenue compared to other regions [41][42] Future Outlook - The report anticipates weak order elasticity in the near term, with upstream manufacturing unlikely to see significant recovery [6][34] - The recent tariff policies have provided clarity, enhancing investment certainty in the manufacturing sector [7] Sector Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading manufacturers in the Southeast Asia region, where tariff impacts have been clarified, and investment certainty has improved [7][22] - The leading manufacturers are expected to gain market share due to their competitive advantages in low-tariff regions [7][22]