Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-30 03:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from the Yajiang Hydropower Station project. However, the short - term impact of these two factors on copper should be limited. The increase may be due to funds overflowing from other sectors. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, copper prices may decline slightly. This week is a macro super - week with significant events that will cause large price fluctuations in the last week of July [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (-0.2%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,820 yuan/ton with no daily change. The LME copper 3M price is 9,803 dollars/ton, up 40.5 dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.12 with no daily change [2][5][7]. - Spot Data: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 79,025 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.06%); Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [9]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4][6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the over - increase in copper prices caused by the anti - involution event [6]. Copper Inventory Data - SHFE Warehouse Receipts: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [15]. - LME Copper Inventory: The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the registered warehouse receipts are 108,225 tons, down 1,900 tons (-1.73%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons (12.3%) [17]. - COMEX Copper Inventory: The total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%); the registered warehouse receipts are 109,453 tons, up 1,404 tons (0.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 143,978 tons, up 2,223 tons (1.57%) [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 316.42 yuan/ton, down 25.16 yuan (-7.37%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 dollars/ton with no daily change [21].