ZBD(SH:603567) Huaxin Securities·2025-07-31 06:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term impacts from centralized procurement, but sales are anticipated to improve post-implementation. The net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between -77 million and -66 million yuan, primarily due to delayed procurement timelines and price reductions on core products, leading to a 57% decline in revenue and a 64% drop in gross profit year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has made significant progress in the development of innovative traditional Chinese medicine, with a key milestone achieved in the clinical trial of Qingjiang Hewei Granules, which targets a complex syndrome of non-erosive gastroesophageal reflux disease [5]. - The company holds a 17.0211% stake in Zhejiang Tereis, which is developing a first-in-class ADC product, TRS005, showing promising clinical results for treating relapsed or refractory CD20-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is expected to see a revenue decline in 2025, with projections of 1.984 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 2.823 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.066 billion yuan in 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.54 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 185.9, 24.8, and 23 respectively [8][10]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s core products are expected to regain sales momentum following the implementation of centralized procurement, which is anticipated to positively impact revenue in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - The innovative drug development and the ADC platform are seen as potential growth drivers for the company, with the ADC product expected to receive regulatory approval in 2024 [6][8]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite short-term challenges due to procurement policies, the company’s innovative drug pipeline and strategic partnerships could lead to significant growth in the coming years, justifying the "Buy" rating [8].