Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-31 08:59Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The oil - chemical sector stood out today as other sectors weakened, due to crude oil rebound and asphalt fundamentals. The price of crude oil rebounded as the market refocused on sanctions against Russian oil and it was at the end of the peak - demand season. The so - called "anti - involution" had no obvious positive impact on domestic refineries, resulting in the reversal of the premium, which couldn't be reflected in asphalt. In the asphalt supply side, production decreased slightly as some refineries shut down or switched to producing residual oil. In terms of inventory, factory inventories decreased while social inventories decreased slowly. Speculative demand weakened, and traders started to reduce their inventories actively. The basis in Shandong and East China weakened due to the expected increase in the operating rate, and the crack spread remained high. Currently, the demand side is still in the off - season affected by rainfall, and the overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the short term, the absolute price is in a volatile trend because of the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent. In the long - term, as construction conditions improve in the north and south in August, the construction will enter the peak season. The debt - resolution progress of local governments in 2025 is accelerating, and the funds situation has improved. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed, so the peak season is still worth looking forward to. The short - term "anti - involution" has little impact on the cost side of asphalt, and attention should be paid to the progress of specific measures for the asphalt industry chain. There are also rumors about the consumption tax pilot reform in an individual refinery in Shandong, and its progress should be monitored [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past 3 years [1] 2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended selling ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry price range is 3650 - 3750 [1] - Procurement Management: For companies with low regular procurement inventories that want to purchase based on orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the suggested entry price range is 3300 - 3400 [1] 3. Asphalt Price and Basis Crack Spread - 09 Contract - Spot Prices: On July 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3785 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day and the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3730 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day and the week), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan from the previous day and 10 yuan from the week) [1][5][8] - Basis: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 126 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 121 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan from the previous day and 57 yuan from the week), the North China spot 09 basis was 71 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 59 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan from the previous day and down 47 yuan from the week) [8] - Crack Spread: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 131.7688 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day and down 28.037 yuan from the week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 109.9345 yuan/barrel (up 1.5596 yuan from the previous day and down 18.1595 yuan from the week) [8] 4. Factors Affecting Asphalt Price Bullish Factors - Asphalt factory inventories are under little pressure, providing a basis for manufacturers to hold up prices [3] - There is a seasonal peak in demand [3] - The operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south [3] - The "anti - involution" atmosphere has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3] Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil (Merey) in China has increased [7] - The short - term demand in the south is dragged down by the plum - rain season [7] - The reduction of social inventories has slowed down, and the basis has weakened [7] - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7]