Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.62, based on a 10x PE valuation for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company, Honghua Smart Energy, is a leading urban gas company under China Gas Holdings, focusing on providing integrated clean energy solutions and expanding into renewable energy systems [1][12]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 13.5% from HKD 12.85 billion in 2020 to HKD 21.31 billion in 2024, and a core profit increase of 34.5% to HKD 1.601 billion in 2024 [2][23]. - The urban gas industry is experiencing a slowdown in gas sales growth, but the gross margin is expected to improve due to a decrease in international gas prices [3][59]. - The renewable energy segment has rapidly expanded, with net profits from this sector reaching HKD 4.79 billion in 2024, a fivefold increase from the previous year [4][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Honghua Smart Energy is committed to providing one-stop clean energy solutions, operating urban pipeline gas and expanding into renewable energy systems, including digital energy management and carbon management services [1][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue has grown significantly, with a projected core profit of HKD 1.606 billion in 2024, marking a 34.5% increase [2][23]. - The main revenue source is pipeline natural gas sales, accounting for 80% of total revenue in 2024, while renewable energy revenue has increased from 5.3% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2024 [25][27]. Industry Trends - The urban gas industry is seeing a general slowdown in gas sales growth, with the company’s sales volume expected to reach 17.201 billion cubic meters in 2024, a 4.5% increase [3][71]. - The gross margin for the urban gas industry is improving, with the company’s procurement costs decreasing due to lower international gas prices [59][60]. Renewable Energy Development - The company has invested in over 1,000 renewable energy projects across 24 provinces, with a cumulative installed capacity of 2.3 GW in distributed solar power by the end of 2024 [4][19]. - The renewable energy business has turned profitable, achieving a net profit of HKD 0.78 billion in 2023 and projected to reach HKD 4.79 billion in 2024 [4][19]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company are HKD 1.625 billion, HKD 1.680 billion, and HKD 1.734 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an EPS of HKD 0.45, HKD 0.46, and HKD 0.48 [5][19].
港华智慧能源（01083）：城燃业务扎实稳健，可再生能源打造增长极