zhenhua chemical(SH:603067) Guohai Securities·2025-07-31 12:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The chromium salt industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring due to surging demand from the overseas gas turbine and military sectors, which will drive up the demand for metallic chromium [9][10][11] - The global demand for chromium salts is projected to grow from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, representing a substantial increase [10][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming chromium salt market cycle due to its competitive advantages in production capacity and technology [10][11][14] Market Data - As of July 30, 2025, the company's current stock price is 14.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10,242.06 million yuan [6] - The company holds about 24% of the global chromium salt production capacity, indicating a strong market position [31][32] Demand Analysis - The demand for metallic chromium is expected to double from 23,000 tons in 2024 to 49,700 tons by 2028, driven by increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines [11][13] - The military and aerospace sectors are also anticipated to see significant growth, with NATO countries committing to increase defense spending [11][12] Supply Analysis - The supply of chromium salts is constrained due to strict environmental regulations and the difficulty of expanding production capacity globally [10][30] - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is facing a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028 [10][12] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 45.70 billion yuan, 53.88 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.66 billion yuan, 10.05 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan [14][16]