Microsoft(US:MSFT) Guoxin Securities·2025-07-31 13:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The company's overall financial performance in FY25Q4 exceeded expectations, with revenue of $76.4 billion (up 18% YoY), operating profit of $34.3 billion (up 23% YoY), and net profit of $27.2 billion (up 24% YoY) [1][3] - The cloud segment, particularly Azure, showed significant growth, with Azure revenue increasing by 39% YoY, contributing to a total intelligent cloud revenue of $29.9 billion (up 26% YoY) [2][9] - The company expects a slowdown in capital expenditure growth for FY26, with a focus on efficiency improvements [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY25Q4, the company achieved total revenue of $76.4 billion, with a breakdown of $33.1 billion from productivity and business processes (up 16% YoY), $29.9 billion from intelligent cloud (up 26% YoY), and $13.5 billion from personal computing (up 9% YoY) [1][14] - The quarterly commercial bookings increased by 37% YoY, with remaining performance obligations at $368 billion (up 37% YoY) [1] Business Highlights - The intelligent cloud segment is expected to continue releasing operational leverage, with Azure's annual revenue exceeding $75 billion [2][9] - The productivity segment saw revenue growth driven by E5 and M365 Copilot, with a 6% increase in paid commercial seats [2][11] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $24.2 billion, with a forecast of over $30 billion for FY26Q1, indicating a shift towards short-term asset investments [2][12] Performance Outlook - The company anticipates steady growth, projecting intelligent cloud revenue of $30.1-30.4 billion (up 25-27% YoY) and productivity revenue of $32.2-32.5 billion (up 13-15% YoY) for the next quarter [3][10] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are $321.2 billion and $365.5 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of $118.7 billion and $132.0 billion [3][29]