Glencore(US:GLNCY) Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-31 14:12Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - Real Estate Market: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - Power Grid and Power Source: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - Air - conditioning Market: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - Automobile Market: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - New - energy Vehicles: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - Wind and Solar Power Generation: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]