Glencore (GLNCY) has gained nearly 80% over the past 52 weeks. Shares maintain a Trend Seeker “Buy” signal and a 100% “Buy” opinion from Barchart. Fundamentals are attractive with 56% estimated earnings growth this year. Strong sentiment and analyst ratings support GLNCY here. Today’s Featured Stock Valued at $80.56 billion, Glencore (GLNCY) is a diversified natural resource company. It operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Its metals and min ...

Core Insights - The world's largest mining companies have experienced stock losses nearing 30% since the onset of the war, with copper entering a bear market, silver down 40% from its peak, and gold facing its worst week in decades [1][2] Market Performance - Gold futures fell by $225 an ounce, closing at $4,492, marking a 3.5% decline for the day and over 11% for the week [1] - Silver dropped to $67.81, a 6.9% decrease from the start of trading on Friday [1] - Copper ended the day down 4.0% at $5.30 per pound ($11,690 per tonne), with a weekly decline of 7.4% [2] Company-Specific Impacts - Newmont's stock is down 26.3% since the war began, trading at a market cap of $104 billion, down from $143 billion [3][4] - Barrick Mining has seen a 26.8% decline, with a market cap of $62 billion, down $27 billion since late January [4] - Teck Resources holds a royalty on Barrick's Fourmile gold project, which could significantly impact Barrick's valuation [5] Other Mining Companies - AngloGold Ashanti's shares have plummeted 37.4% in March, resulting in a market value of $40 billion, while Gold Fields lost 33.6% to $35 billion [5] - Wheaton Precious Metals has fallen nearly 30% since the conflict began, now valued at $52 billion [6] - Fresnillo's shares are down 31.3% in March, reducing its market cap to $30 billion [7] Broader Industry Trends - BHP's shares have decreased by 20.0%, with a market cap of $168.58 billion, despite record profits [8] - Glencore has only lost 4.3% since the start of the conflict, now valued at $81 billion, making it the best performer among major mining companies year-to-date [18] - Vale's stock has declined by 18.2%, with a market cap of $61 billion, positioning it as one of the better-performing large-cap miners [20]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore's South African ferrochrome unit is considering withdrawing from negotiations with the government regarding a discounted electricity package due to perceived unfavorable conditions [1] Group 1: Company Insights - The executive from Glencore indicated that the current terms of the electricity package are not satisfactory for the company [1] - The potential withdrawal from talks highlights the challenges faced by the ferrochrome unit in securing favorable operational conditions [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The situation reflects broader issues within the South African energy sector, where companies are seeking more favorable terms to ensure competitiveness [1] - The outcome of these negotiations could have significant implications for the ferrochrome industry in South Africa, particularly in terms of operational costs and profitability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, domestic copper inventories have increased since last week due to high copper prices and spreads, leading to cautious downstream purchasing. Meanwhile, the TC of the mining end has continued to decline to -$60/ton, intensifying the raw material shortage. The refined copper import window has opened, leading to a reduction in bonded area inventories; the narrowing price difference between scrap copper and refined copper has suppressed its economic viability, but the demand for taxed raw materials has increased; the operating rates of copper processing sectors have generally rebounded, with a significant increase in orders for refined copper rods, and improvements in the prosperity of enameled wires and brass rods; terminal orders in the power and new energy sectors are strongly supportive, while the construction sector remains weak. As downstream enterprises resume work and copper prices fluctuate and decline, purchasing enthusiasm may recover. Therefore, it is still recommended to conduct buy-hedging on dips between RMB 99,200/ton and RMB 101,000/ton. If the price falls below RMB 99,200/ton, the hedging intensity can be increased [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 17, 2026, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was RMB 100,020/ton, and the closing price was RMB 99,340/ton, a -0.38% decrease from the previous trading day's closing. The opening price of the main SHFE copper contract in the night session was RMB 99,120/ton, and the closing price was RMB 99,140/ton, a 0.20% decrease from the afternoon closing [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the SHFE copper 2604 contract rose and then fell in the early trading yesterday, closing at RMB 100,130/ton. Spot market trading was light, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the transaction volume remained poor even after holders slightly lowered their quotes. The premium/discount was weaker than yesterday. The narrowing of the inter-month spread suppressed the willingness to deliver to the warehouse, and high inventories exerted pressure. The import window was slightly opened, increasing the expectation of subsequent inflows of overseas supplies. It is expected that the premium/discount will continue to be under pressure in the short term [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary - Geopolitically, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, rejected the mediation proposal, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian denied any new contact with US Presidential Envoy Witkoff. Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Efi Devlin said that the Israeli army would "hunt down" Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. In addition, Iranian President Pezeshkian issued an official statement mourning the death of the Secretary of the National Supreme Security Council and former Speaker Ali Larijani in a recent terrorist attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran confirmed the death of Basij militia leader Qolamreza Soleimani. Reports said that Iran had designated multiple replacement candidates for key national positions. Overall, the geopolitical situation has not improved, and the market is still in a narrative of tightening liquidity [3] 3.3 Mining End - Botswana Minerals, a mineral exploration and project development company, announced its exploration progress for the six months ending December 31, 2025. During this period, it obtained eight copper-focused exploration licenses in northwestern Botswana, covering an area of approximately 7,000 square kilometers. These licenses were obtained through the company's use of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze one of Botswana's largest private exploration databases, which is a direct implementation of the AI plan proposed in its 2025 annual report. The relevant details were further explained in the company's report in January this year. Botswana said that the granting of these eight copper exploration licenses was the first concrete result of its broader strategic adjustment, with a license validity period until December 31, 2028, giving it a considerable scale in this increasingly active copper-producing area. Currently, the company has begun planning close-range geophysical and geochemical surveys to optimize AI-generated targets into drillable exploration points. At the same time, the company is in talks with potential joint venture (JV) partners, reflecting the growing interest in copper and energy transition metals in stable African jurisdictions [4] - Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto announced on Monday that it had obtained the control rights for the Resolution copper mine in Arizona. The project is expected to become one of the largest key mineral (copper) supply sources in the United States but has been opposed by Native Americans for more than 20 years. The acquisition of the control rights marks the likely end of a long and complex legal battle. As a core condition for obtaining the control rights of the mining area, Rio Tinto transferred 5,400 acres (approximately 8.4 square miles) of land in Arizona to the US Forest Service in exchange for the use rights of a 2,400-acre mining area. The mining area contains more than 40 billion pounds (approximately 18.1 million tons) of copper. The Resolution copper mine is one of the largest undeveloped copper mine projects in the world, with an estimated copper resource of 1.97 billion tons and an average grade of 1.54%. As of now, the San Carlos Apache Tribe and its lawyers have not responded to this matter [4] 3.4 Smelting and Import - On March 13, the Australian Workers' Union (AWU) said that workers at Glencore's Townsville copper refinery in North Queensland went on strike after nearly a year of negotiations failed to resolve the dispute over wage increases and working conditions. Union members stopped work at the refinery for four hours and then resumed operations. AWU Northern Secretary Jim Wilson said, "If Glencore has no intention of improving its offer, the strike action will continue." He added that the union currently does not plan to take further actions. In response to the strike, Glencore reiterated in an email reply to Reuters that the company remains committed to reaching an agreement with its employees. At the same time, Glencore said that the AWU's political showmanship may damage the constructive cooperative relationship previously established with the negotiators. The refinery has an annual production capacity of up to 300,000 tons of 99.995% pure copper cathodes [5] 3.5 Consumption - On March 16, the General Office of the Anhui Provincial People's Government issued a notice and printed the "List of Key Projects in Anhui Province in 2026," totaling 1,806 projects, including 488 Class A projects and 1,318 Class B projects. Among them, there are four copper-related projects, specifically: the New Tai 500,000-ton copper-based new materials project in Dangtu County; the Guangde Hengtong 60,000-ton new energy copper-based new materials project; the Tongling Nonferrous Green and Intelligent Copper-based New Materials project; and the Ningguo JINGANGUOJI 4 million-square-meter high-grade copper-clad laminate project [5] 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 330,375 tons compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,291 tons to 324,289 tons compared with the previous trading day. On March 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 547,300 tons, a decrease of 26,600 tons compared with the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global zinc mine expansion cycle is nearing its end, and production disruptions are increasing, resulting in limited incremental space. In 2026, the global zinc mine output is expected to increase by about 150,000 tons, with the incremental projects concentrated in a few large - scale projects that were ramping up in the previous period [4]. - The global zinc concentrate supply - demand balance is tightening. Under the neutral scenario, a tight balance of zinc mines may become the norm, the TC operation center is expected to decline, and the zinc price operation center is expected to rise [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Zinc Mine Project Tracking - **2025 Global Zinc Mine Production**: In 2025, the global zinc mine output increased by 641,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%, with the increment concentrated overseas. The production increase was mainly in Peru, Congo (Kinshasa), China, South Africa, Ireland, and Europe, while the decrease was mainly in the United States and Brazil [7]. - **2026 Global Zinc Mine Output Forecast**: Based on production schedules and production guidance, the global zinc mine increment in 2026 is estimated to be about 150,000 tons. The projects expected to contribute definite increments include Vedanta's Gamsberg Phase II, Ivanhoe's Kipushi project in Congo (Kinshasa), and the continuous realization of the increment from Russia's Ozernoye mine. Additionally, China's Huoshaoyun lead - zinc mine may add 150,000 - 200,000 metal tons in 2026 [4]. 3.2 Production Situation of Important Listed Mining Enterprises in Q4 - **Vedanta**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 335,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.35% and a year - on - year increase of 7.72%, mainly driven by the increment of HZL and Gamsberg. The 2026FY production guidance was raised to 1.35 - 1.4 million tons, a slight increase compared to 2025FY. The bottleneck transformation of Chanderiya and Dariba refineries was completed in this quarter [12]. - **Glencore**: In Q4 2025, the zinc resource output was 260,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.54%. The 2026 annual production guidance was lowered to 700,000 - 740,000 tons. The C1 cost decreased in 2025, and future capital expenditure will focus on copper and coal projects [19]. - **Teck**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 157,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.41%, mainly due to the increase in Antamina's production. The 2026 cost guidance increased, and the Red Dog MLE project is in progress [20][24]. - **Zijin Mining**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 128,900 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 40.87% and a year - on - year increase of 41.13%. The 2026 - 2028 production plan aims to stabilize and increase zinc output, but the unit sales cost increased in the reporting period [25]. - **Nexa**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 91,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 22.51%. The 2026 capital expenditure is expected to increase, and the zinc mine cash cost in 2026 is expected to rise [28]. - **Peñoles**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 69,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9.70% and a year - on - year increase of 13.31%, mainly due to the resumption of Tizapa's production. The 2025 mine cash cost mostly decreased, and the enterprise's CAPEX is expected to slightly decline [35]. - **Volcan**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 59,400 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.19%. The Q4 2025 mine cost increased, and the capital expenditure increased significantly [36][39]. - **MMG**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 65,400 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 11.29% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The 2026 production guidance was slightly lowered, and the 2026 CAPEX is expected to be 1.6 - 1.7 billion US dollars, mainly focused on non - zinc projects [43]. - **Boliden**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 91,800 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 15.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. The 2026 annual CAPEX is expected to be 15 billion Swedish kronor [44]. - **Newmont**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 46,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 22.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.26%. The 2026 unit cost is expected to increase, and the 2026 annual CAPEX is expected to be 3.35 billion US dollars [52]. - **Ivanhoe**: In Q4 2025, the zinc mine production was 61,400 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.42% and a year - on - year increase of 89.12%. The 2026 production guidance is 240,000 - 290,000 tons. The 2026 Kipushi C1 cost is expected to be between 0.85 - 0.95 $/lb, and the capital expenditure is expected to be 60 million US dollars [55].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Commodities Impacted**: The conference call discusses the thermal coal and aluminium markets, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East (ME) which has led to supply risks and price increases for these commodities [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Thermal Coal Prices**: - The forecast for 2026 thermal coal prices has been raised by 10% to $126 per ton due to increased gas prices and potential gas-to-coal substitution [4][13]. - Since the onset of the Iran conflict on February 28, European gas prices have risen by approximately 50%, Brent crude by 30%, and NEWC thermal coal prices by 15% [4]. - **Aluminium Prices**: - The 2026 LME aluminium price forecast has been increased by 13% to approximately $3,250 per ton, driven by supply disruptions from the ME conflict [7][13]. - The ME supplies about 25% of aluminium imports to Europe and the US, and disruptions could lead to higher premiums in these markets [7]. - **Alumina Prices**: - The 2026 alumina price forecast has been cut by 5% to around $320 per ton due to oversupply risks exacerbated by ME disruptions [7][13]. - The potential for 'dumping' in the spot market could further pressure alumina prices, although China may reduce refinery output to limit price declines [7]. Additional Important Content - **Equity Impacts**: - **Norsk Hydro (NHY)**: Expected to see a 13% increase in EBITDA for 2026 due to higher aluminium prices, with a price target raised to NOK 110 per share [10][14]. - **Alcoa (AA)**: EBITDA for 2026 is expected to rise by 40% due to LME price increases, with a price target raised from $48 to $70 per share [10][14]. - **Glencore**: Benefits from higher thermal coal prices, with a 9% increase in FY26 EBITDA forecasted [10][14]. - **Market Outlook**: - The ongoing conflict in the ME is expected to create a higher risk premium for energy prices, supporting elevated coal prices in the near term [2][12]. - Despite the uncertainty, medium-term fundamentals for copper and aluminium remain strong due to supply constraints and energy transition demand [12]. - **Price Changes Summary**: - A summary table indicates various commodity price changes, including a 13% increase for aluminium and a 9% increase for thermal coal for 2026 [13]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant upward revisions in commodity price forecasts due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the thermal coal and aluminium markets. The potential for supply disruptions from the Middle East is a critical factor influencing these forecasts, with implications for various equities in the sector.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were that the year-on-year growth rate of the US core PCE in January reached a two-year high, the Fed's inflation expectation decline within the year might be less than once, and the US dollar index rebounded. In addition, the conflict between the US and Iran continued to ferment, and commodities and risk assets other than oil and gas were under pressure to decline. Fundamentally, the Kennecott copper mine under Rio Tinto suddenly suspended operations due to a mine accident, the domestic refined copper production had little room for growth, the social inventory was slowly being depleted at a high level, the domestic trade spot turned to a premium after the month change, and the C structure of the near-month disk converged [2][7]. - Overall, the rebound of the US inflation expectation significantly reduced the Fed's interest rate cut expectation within the year, and Iran's tough stance further fermented the global energy crisis sentiment. The market returned to the pricing logic of "survival + security". Only the US dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded, and commodities and risk assets other than oil and gas were under pressure. Fundamentally, mine disturbances increased supply concerns, the domestic refined copper supply marginally shrank, the global inventory was high but faced structural mismatches, the domestic social inventory turned to slow depletion, and the terminal consumption recovery still needed time. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and geopolitical risks should be noted [2][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of LME copper, COMEX copper, SHFE copper, and international copper all declined last week. The LME copper price dropped by 1.04% to $12,735.50 per ton, the COMEX copper price fell by 2.78% to 567.5 cents per pound, the SHFE copper price decreased by 0.73% to 100,310 yuan per ton, and the international copper price declined by 0.88% to 88,740 yuan per ton. The LME spot premium decreased by 128.93% to -$102.70 per ton, and the Shanghai spot premium increased to 85 yuan per ton [3]. - The total inventory increased by 2.44% to 1,426,910 tons last week. The LME inventory increased by 9.67% to 311,825 tons, the COMEX inventory decreased by 1.05% to 591,645 short tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.96% to 433,440 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5.26% to 90,000 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in copper prices last week was mainly due to the high inflation in the US and the continuous fermentation of the US-Iran conflict. Fundamentally, the suspension of the Kennecott copper mine affected the supply, and the domestic refined copper production had little room for growth. The global inventory continued to rise, and the domestic inventory was slowly being depleted. The terminal consumption showed a steady increase, but the traditional industries faced greater pressure [7][9]. - The US inflation data was high, which reduced the Fed's interest rate cut expectation within the year. The US-Iran conflict increased the market's concern about the global energy crisis, pushing up the prices of oil and US Treasury yields, and putting pressure on other commodities and risk assets. The domestic inflation data showed that the CPI increased, and the PPI decline narrowed [8]. Industry News - Rio Tinto's Kennecott copper mine in the US suspended operations due to a mine accident, which might lead to a further reduction in the global copper concentrate supply growth rate [11]. - Mongolia is demanding an early profit distribution and an increase in the revenue share of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine jointly operated with Rio Tinto. The two sides have restarted negotiations on the commercial terms of the $18 billion project [12]. - Workers at Glencore's copper refinery in Queensland, Australia, plan to go on strike due to a failure to reach an agreement on salary and working conditions in nearly a year of negotiations [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, the inventory changes of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, the LME copper premium trend, the refined scrap copper price difference trend, etc., to visually show the market situation of copper [16][18][24].

Core Viewpoint - Glencore's CEO Gary Nagle is optimistic that the recent rise in coal prices may rekindle Rio Tinto's interest in creating the world's largest mining company through a merger [1] Group 1: Merger Discussions - Earlier this year, Glencore and Rio Tinto held negotiations to form a company valued at $240 billion, combining Glencore's marketing business and copper assets with Rio Tinto's operational expertise to meet the growing demand for metals [1] - Discussions ended last month without an agreement, and due to UK regulations, Rio Tinto cannot re-engage in talks with Glencore for six months [1] - Nagle remains hopeful about the prospects for another opportunity to reach an agreement [1] Group 2: Valuation and Market Performance - Glencore believes that Rio Tinto's valuation of the company is linked to the spot prices of key commodities like coal as of January 7, the day before negotiations became public, and suggests a more cautious assessment should consider forecasted prices [1] - Since January 7, coal prices and Glencore's stock have surged by 26%, while Rio Tinto's stock has increased by 9%, and iron ore prices have slightly declined [1] - Currently, Glencore's share in the combined market value with Rio Tinto is approximately 35%, up from 31.5% at the time negotiations were made public, and closer to the 40% share Glencore sought in the rejected deal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics of oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran war, and highlights the major commodity traders influencing these prices. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - U.S. oil prices are around $95 per barrel, influenced by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Iraq reported attacks on oil tankers, leading to operational halts at oil terminals, while Oman temporarily suspended operations at a key oil-export terminal [1] - The IEA proposed releasing 400 million barrels of crude and petroleum products from reserves, with the U.S. contributing 172 million barrels [1] - Despite the conflict, Iran has been shipping 2.1 million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz, slightly above pre-war levels [1] - The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) has increased nearly 8% and over 40% since the U.S. and Israel's campaign against Iran began [1] Group 2: Major Commodity Traders - The leading commodity traders in the oil market include Vitol Group, Trafigura Group, Glencore, and Gunvor Group, collectively handling about 20% of the world's daily oil supply [1] - Vitol is the largest, moving 7.2 million barrels per day, representing approximately 7% of global oil supply [1] - Trafigura follows closely with 6.8 million barrels per day, while Glencore moves about 4.2 million barrels per day [1] - Gunvor operates at around 3.2 million barrels per day and owns refineries in Germany and the Netherlands [1] Group 3: Financial Strategies of Traders - Major traders are leveraging gains from volatile energy markets to strengthen their market positions, reinvesting profits from past crises [1] - Vitol, Trafigura, and Gunvor are securing billions in new credit lines to prepare for potential price spikes [1] - Trafigura announced a $3 billion credit facility to provide liquidity during periods of heightened commodity price volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - Workers at Glencore's copper refinery in North Queensland are planning to strike due to failed negotiations over pay and working conditions, with the Australian Workers' Union indicating that the company has not offered a wage increase that aligns with the rising cost of living [1][1]. Company Overview - Glencore operates 20 active mining operations in Australia, producing zinc, copper, silver, and other minerals, and employs approximately 17,000 people [1][1]. Labor Relations - The Australian Workers' Union announced that workers at the Townsville refinery will walk off the job if their concerns are not addressed in a bargaining meeting scheduled for Thursday [1][1]. - Negotiations between Glencore and the workers have been ongoing since late March of the previous year, highlighting a prolonged dispute over compensation [1][1].