TAL(US:TAL) HTSC·2025-08-01 01:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4][12] Core Views - The company reported Q1FY26 revenue of $575 million, a year-over-year increase of 38.8%, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 39.8% [1][5] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 was $25.11 million, corresponding to an operating profit margin (OPM) of 4.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.3 percentage points [1][2] - The company announced a new stock repurchase plan, expecting to buy back up to $600 million of its common stock over the next 12 months [1][4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - Q1 learning service revenue is estimated at approximately $405 million, with a year-over-year growth of 40% in RMB terms [2] - The tutoring and online school business revenue is expected to grow by 46% and 50% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Overall gross margin for Q1 increased by 3.2 percentage points to 54.9%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by about 3.5 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - Q1 deferred revenue grew by approximately 50.8% year-over-year but showed a sequential decline [3] - Q2 learning service revenue growth is expected to decline to around 25% year-over-year [3] - The company anticipates total revenue growth of 22% year-over-year for Q2, with a non-GAAP OPM of 8.57% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 have been adjusted to $2.834 billion, $3.459 billion, and $4.075 billion, respectively [4][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are projected at $220 million, $373 million, and $544 million, respectively [4][9] - The target price based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method is set at $13.89, down from a previous estimate of $14.82 [4][12]