Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-01 03:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].