湘财证券晨会纪要-20250801

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the public utility sector, specifically highlighting Jingneng Power's regional advantages supporting electricity prices and the potential for coal price improvements [2] - Jingneng Power's business model includes coal-fired power generation, accelerated transition to renewable energy, cross-regional collaboration, and synchronized growth in heating services [2] Company Performance - As of the end of 2024, Jingneng Power's installed capacity reached 23.44 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, with coal-fired capacity at 21.39 million kilowatts [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in renewable energy capacity, reaching 2.05 million kilowatts, up 382.94% from the end of 2023 [3][4] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%, and a net profit of 1.723 billion yuan, up 95.52% [5] Electricity Generation and Pricing - In Q1 2025, Jingneng Power's revenue was 9.885 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.59%, with a net profit of 1.063 billion yuan, up 129.84% [6] - The company completed an electricity generation of 21.661 billion kilowatt-hours in Q1 2025, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with a notable increase in renewable energy generation [6] - The electricity pricing environment is favorable, particularly in regions with high energy consumption, which is expected to support revenue growth [6] Cost Structure and Coal Procurement - The majority of Jingneng Power's coal procurement is through long-term contracts, with 94% of total coal consumption sourced this way [7] - The average price of coal has decreased, with a reported decline of 11.6% year-on-year for 2024, indicating potential for further cost optimization [7] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts Jingneng Power's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.754 billion, 4.005 billion, and 4.554 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 117.87%, 6.67%, and 13.73% [8] - The report assigns a "buy" rating for the company based on its favorable operational and market conditions [8]