BUD APAC(HK:01876) EBSCN·2025-08-01 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) [5] Core Views - Budweiser APAC's Q2 2025 revenue was $1.675 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 3.9% [1] - Normalized EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $498 million, down 4.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $175 million, reflecting a 31.1% decrease [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure, which has led to an increase in ton price and gross margin despite pressure on sales volume [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q2 2025 sales volume was 23.887 million kiloliters, down 6.2% year-on-year, while revenue per hectoliter increased by 2.4% [2] - Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 51.8%, up 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company experienced a decline in sales across both eastern and western regions of Asia-Pacific, with notable performance in high-end products in India [2] Regional Analysis - In the western Asia-Pacific region, revenue and normalized EBITDA saw a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and an increase of 1.4%, respectively, with sales volume down 5.6% [2] - The eastern Asia-Pacific region faced a more significant decline, with revenue and normalized EBITDA down 8.4% and 26.5%, respectively, and sales volume down 10.4% [2] Inventory Management - The company has been actively managing inventory, with Q2 2025 inventory levels lower than the previous year and significantly below the industry average [3] - The focus on non-immediate consumption channels has contributed to growth in high-end product sales [3] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to $690 million, $737 million, and $782 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 8% for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20x for 2025, 19x for 2026, and 18x for 2027, indicating a favorable outlook in the high-end market segment [3]