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长江电力(600900):发电量稳增带动业绩增长,拟扩能葛洲坝航运工程提升发电效益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, driven by stable growth in power generation [9] - The company plans to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project to enhance power generation efficiency [3] - The company aims to achieve a power generation target of 300 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with projected net profits of 35.028 billion yuan, 36.715 billion yuan, and 37.087 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 78.144 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.48% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is projected at 27.245 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.83% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 1.11 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 25.14 [1] Operational Highlights - The company reported a total power generation of approximately 1266.56 billion kilowatt-hours in H1 2025, a 5.01% increase year-on-year [9] - The water inflow for the Wudongde reservoir was approximately 39.964 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.01% compared to the same period last year [9] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in the ten-year government bond yield, which has fallen to 1.7% as of July 31, 2025 [10]