Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-01 10:09Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the speed of cotton inventory reduction during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4]. Summary by Directory Domestic Market - Supply: As of July 24, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 8.2 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - Import: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the棉纱 import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1]. - Demand: In June, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% from the previous month and 3.10% from the same period last year; the export volume of textile and clothing was 27.315 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.22% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.13% from the same period last year [1]. - Inventory: As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in the country was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market US Market - Supply: As of July 27, the budding rate of cotton in the United States was 80%, 6% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the average of the past five years; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8% behind the same period last year and 2% behind the average of the past five years; the overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 6 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - Demand: From July 18 - 24, the net signing of US upland cotton for the 24/25 season was 8,868 tons, significantly higher than the average of the past four weeks; the shipment of upland cotton was 52,367 tons, an increase of 25% from the previous week and 10% from the average of the past four weeks; the net signing of Pima cotton was 23 tons, the shipment of Pima cotton was 1,973 tons, the signing of new - season upland cotton was 16,261 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 1,134 tons [1]. Southeast Asian Market - Supply: As of July 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% from the same period last year [1]. - Demand: In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.45% from the previous month and 13.86% from the same period last year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% from the previous month and 6.31% from the same period last year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% from the previous month and an increase of 1.23% from the same period last year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% from the previous month and an increase of 7.59% from the same period last year [1]. Futures Market - Cotton Futures: The closing prices of Zhengmian 01, 05, and 09 were 13,785 yuan, 13,730 yuan, and 13,585 yuan respectively, with weekly declines of 330 yuan (-2.34%), 310 yuan (-2.21%), and 585 yuan (-4.13%) [21][24]. - Spot Market: The prices of CC Index 3128B, CC Index 2227B, and CC Index 2129B were 15,580 yuan, 13,670 yuan, and 15,873 yuan respectively, with increases of 31 yuan (0.2%), 32 yuan (0.23%), and 7 yuan (0.04%) [24]. - Spreads: The CF1 - 5 spread was 65 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 125 yuan, an increase of 295 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 190 yuan, a decrease of 285 yuan [24]. - Import Prices: The price of FC Index M was 13,738 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan (0.33%); the price of FCY Index C32s was 21,230 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan (0.05%) [24]. - Cotton Yarn: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 19,740 yuan, a weekly decline of 630 yuan (-3.09%); the spot price was 20,670 yuan, a decline of 70 yuan (-0.34%) [24].