Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-01 11:50Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's overall production progress was lower than the historical average, causing concerns about potential production cuts. However, data in early July showed an acceleration in production and a significant increase in the sugar - making ratio. In the domestic market, the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports led to a rapid decline in futures prices to close this window [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR509C5800) at 15 - 20 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventories aiming to lock in procurement costs, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR509P5700) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while concerns about Brazil's production cuts cause price fluctuations. The opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window leads to a decline in futures prices [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - India's NFCSF predicts that the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season will be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to mid - July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crushing volume of 256.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.61%; sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [5]. - In June, the import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [7]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [7]. - Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US, and PepsiCo may follow suit if there is market demand [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons [8]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production to 46 million tons in the 25/26 season [8]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [8]. - India's monsoon arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and it is expected that the 25/26 season will see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million tons [8]. - In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9]. - In the first half of July, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%; sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07% [9]. 3.5 Market Data - Basis and Price Changes: - On July 31, 2025, the basis between Nanning and SR01 was 395, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis between Kunming and SR01 was 260, with a daily increase of 11 and a weekly increase of 18 [10]. - On August 1, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5620, with a daily decline of 0.62% and a weekly decline of 1.51% [10]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: - On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price in Kunming was 5915, with a weekly decrease of 5 [11]. - Import Price Changes: - On August 1, 2025, the in - quota import price from Brazil was 4494, with a daily increase of 36 and a weekly increase of 12; the out - of - quota price was 5710, with a daily increase of 48 and a weekly increase of 17 [12].