百威亚太（01876）：边际有改善，前路仍漫长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC with a target price of HK$7.90, while the current price is HK$8.09 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing marginal improvements, but the recovery process is slower than expected, with total sales volume in 25H1 declining by 6.1% year-on-year and revenue decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year [3][10]. - The Chinese market continues to face challenges, with sales volume and revenue down by 8.2% and 9.5% respectively in 25H1, although there are signs of marginal improvement in Q2 [4][11]. - The South Korean market is undergoing structural adjustments, while the Indian market shows resilience with double-digit revenue growth in Q2 [5][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the company expects revenue of US$6.246 billion, with a projected decline of 8.9% year-on-year. The net profit is estimated at US$726 million, reflecting a decrease of 14.8% [2][9]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 50.4% for 2024A, with a gradual increase to 51.1% by 2027E [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be USD 0.05, USD 0.05, and USD 0.06 respectively [6][13]. Market Analysis - In the Chinese market, the on-premise channel remains weak, and the transformation is still in its early stages, with a focus on premium products in non-on-premise channels [4][11]. - The company has been actively managing inventory, achieving better-than-historical inventory levels by the end of Q2 2025, which supports future sales growth [4][11]. - In South Korea, the company implemented a price increase of 2.9% for core brands, but the market response was neutral, and overall performance remains under pressure [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the company can overcome challenges related to channel transformation and expense control, it may reverse the decline in market share in China, laying the groundwork for medium- to long-term recovery [6][13].