Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-03 06:08Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, with the first round of coke price hikes initiated [3]. - Affected by position limits, the volatility of coal and coke prices may increase. The recent strong performance of coal and coke prices is related to market expectations and the contradiction of short - term supply - demand mismatch in the fundamentals. The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom in the industrial chain is smooth, and the reshaping of coking coal valuation after the previous decline provides upward potential momentum. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of policy news, spot - futures behavior, and fundamentals on prices [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoints Supply - This week, some coal mines in the main production areas that were shut down or limited production due to factors such as working face replacement and maintenance resumed production, and the overall supply increased. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 10.66 tons to 1236.27 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.74% to 86.01%. The overall customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the Ganqimaodu Port maintained a level of over 1000 vehicles [5]. Demand - Affected by the continuous decline of the futures market, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors was relatively cautious, and the prices of high - priced resources in online auctions began to decline [5]. Inventory - Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and downstream continued to haul. Coal mine inventories were generally at a low level, and most had been cleared. Currently, the origin has shown a declining inventory trend for 7 consecutive weeks. The weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 17.37 tons to 226.85 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 22.72 tons to 192.97 tons [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 868.68 (+6.38); FW clean coal 444.06 (+3.09) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.81 (+0.21); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.97 (-0.19) | | Demand | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 106.15; Mine clean coal - 30.18; Independent coking +7.35; Steel mill coking +4.28; Port imported coking coal - 10.23; 288 Port +2 | MS total inventory - 2.82; Independent coking - 6.50; Steel mills - 13.29; Ports +16.97 | | Profit | Commodity coal 418 (+65) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 45 (+9) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1328; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 973 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1460 | [7] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The supply data includes the production of raw coal and clean coal from coal washing plants and coal mines, as well as the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [9][10][11][13][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 14.18 tons to 194.71 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 13.86 tons to 118.77 tons [17]. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.11 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.23 tons [22]. - Coking plant inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data [25][27]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [30]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are shown, including overall and regional data [33][34][35][37]. - Output: The daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills is presented [39][41]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of coke in coking plants is shown, including overall and historical data [43]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coke in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [44][46][47]. - Total inventory: The total inventory of coke from all samples is presented [49]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises [51]. Profit - The profit data of coke includes the disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke [54][55]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and coking coal 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [59]. Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and coke 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [62]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coal and coke are presented [66]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions are shown [69]. Coal and Coke Basis - On August 1st, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was - 68 (futures at a discount to the spot), and the basis of coke was 125 (futures at a premium to the spot) [73].