中美股市能否逐渐脱钩？

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that adjustments in the US stock market may influence the A-share market, particularly when A-shares are at bull market peaks [2][8] - Historical data since 2000 shows that during four significant adjustments in the US market (2000-2002, 2008, Q1 2020, 2022), A-shares transitioned from bull to bear markets, except for Q1 2020 when A-shares were less affected [3][9] - The report suggests that the current A-share market is in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may mitigate the impact of US market fluctuations [3][9] Group 2 - The correlation between Japanese and US stock markets has been high, but there have been two significant periods of divergence lasting about ten years, during which the US market experienced substantial declines while the Japanese market rose [3][15] - The report posits that due to significant valuation differences between A-shares and US stocks, there is a considerable probability that the two markets may gradually decouple [17][18] - The report highlights that since 2021, foreign ownership of A-shares has been declining, and there has been no significant return of foreign capital to A-shares since the bull market began in September 2024, suggesting limited impact from US market volatility [18][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates a potential main upward trend in the A-share market driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased resident capital inflow as the market stabilizes [21][23] - It suggests a shift in investment strategy from a "barbell" approach to a more flexible strategy, focusing on sectors with elastic performance such as non-bank financials and AI applications [25][26] - The report recommends increasing allocations in sectors like non-bank financials, media, and metals, while also considering cyclical stocks that may show elastic performance in the coming months [26][27]