华夏中海商业REIT申购价值深度分析

Group 1 - The core asset of the 华夏中海商业 REIT is the 佛山映月湖环宇城, which has shown a strong growth in foot traffic and revenue with a CAGR of 17% and 15% from 2022 to 2024 respectively, and a stable occupancy rate above 97% since 2023 [3][31] - The project is strategically located in the core commercial area of 佛山, serving a population of 430,000 within a 3 km radius and over 800,000 within 5 km, which enhances its service capacity and customer base [9][14] - The original equity holder, 中海环宇商业, is a leading commercial operation brand with a rich asset reserve, which supports the project's growth and operational efficiency [24][26] Group 2 - The project's revenue has steadily increased, with total revenues of 1.01, 1.12, 1.37, and 0.32 billion from 2022 to Q1 2025, driven by improved occupancy rates and optimized tenant mix [36][38] - The EBITDA margin has been under pressure, with EBITDA figures of 0.85, 0.89, 0.90, and 0.21 billion during the same period, indicating a need for ongoing operational improvements [36][39] - The project maintains a high occupancy rate of 97%-98% since 2023, which is above the average of comparable REITs, indicating strong demand and effective management [41][42] Group 3 - The expected fair value of the project assets is estimated to be between 11.32 and 13.91 billion, with an IRR ranging from 5.52% to 6.50%, which is significantly higher than the average of listed consumer REITs [3][4] - The projected capitalization rates for 2025 and 2026 are 5.15%-6.15% and 5.60%-6.62% respectively, which are higher than comparable REITs, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][20] - The forecasted distribution rates for 2025 and 2026 are 4.52% and 4.92% respectively, which are significantly higher than the latest distribution rates of comparable REITs, suggesting strong cash flow potential [4][20]