短空长多

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the market [1][3][5] Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the market is a technical adjustment due to delivery and position - limit measures, not the end of the anti - involution theme market, with a relatively large adjustment amplitude. The market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [3][5] - The feed sector is expected to be bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Week Market Data Overview - Anti - involution varieties fluctuated sharply last week. Due to concentrated capital inflows and slow position transfers of the main contracts, the exchange introduced position - limit measures, leading to a sharp decline in the main contracts as liquidity suddenly flowed out. The 09 contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal led the decline. However, the anti - involution theme is a long - term policy strategy. Although some varieties have high inventories, the probability of prices falling back to the June lows is extremely low. The market recognizes the anti - involution policy, but the high positions in the near - term contracts forced the exchange to take measures to resolve potential delivery risks. Additionally, soybean meal has deviated from the decline of US soybeans recently [4] Market Data Tables - Plate Capital Flow: The total capital outflow was 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, the precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed and breeding, and soft commodities sectors all had capital outflows, while the oil and fat sector had a capital inflow of 646 million yuan [8] - Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 18.7%, and the inventory percentile is 42.6% [8] - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: The table presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.9%, and the inventory percentile is 43.7% [10] - Agricultural Product Weekly Data: The table shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of agricultural products, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 3.4%, and the inventory percentile is 32.0% [11]