Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-04 03:03Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - Latest Closing Price of Tin: 264,950 yuan/ton [2] - Monthly Price Range Forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 14.36% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 26.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline [2] - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase [2] - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Tin price declined slightly during the week as expected due to limited macro - impact [3] - Myanmar's tin mine mining licenses are mostly approved, expected to resume work in late August, which is a major factor for tin fundamentals but unlikely to affect short - term supply - demand [3] - If Myanmar's resumption is below expectations again, previous negative factors may turn into short - term positives [3] - Tin price may fluctuate in the next week, and supply - side topics still have room for speculation [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies [4] - Semiconductor sector is still in an expansion cycle [4] - Myanmar's production resumption is below expectations [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals [5] - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China [5] - Slowdown of semiconductor sector expansion and transition from expansion to contraction cycle [5] Group 6: Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 265,220 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,215 | 530 | 1.62% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.12 | 0.1 | 1.25% | [6] Group 7: Spot Market Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 264,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.4% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 500 | - 200 | - 28.57% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 252,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.51% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 256,600 | - 6,500 | - 2.47% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 172,250 | - 3,500 | - 1.99% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 179,750 | - 3,500 | - 1.91% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 270,750 | - 6,500 | - 2.34% | [11] Group 8: Inventory Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Total) | tons | 7,286 | - 143 | - 1.92% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Guangdong) | tons | 4,853 | 22 | 0.46% | | Shanghai Futures Exchange Tin Warehouse Receipt (Shanghai) | tons | 1,562 | - 165 | - 9.55% | | LME Tin Inventory (Total) | tons | 1,855 | 35 | 1.92% | [19] Group 9: Other Data | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 14,300.05 | 1,473.25 | - 9.34% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | - 500 | - 4.74% | [20]