Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-04 03:09Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper prices during the week was mainly due to the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy. Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper tubes, pipe fittings, and other semi - finished copper products from this Friday, and extended it to copper - intensive finished products. However, core upstream products were excluded. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week. The price difference between COMEX copper and LME, SHFE copper will fluctuate and is expected to balance in the next 2 trading days. The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, but the short - term US market cannot digest it, which affects the price difference between LME and COMEX [3] Key Points from Different Sections Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 78,400 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to sell 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, it is recommended to buy 75% of SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Readjustment of the US tariff policy [4] - Decline of the US dollar index due to employment data [6] - Obvious downward support [6] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies [6] - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies [6] - Excessively high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff policy adjustment [6] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,400 yuan/ton with no daily change. SHFE copper continuous - first contract is 78,400 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (0.46%), and SHFE copper continuous - third contract is 78,330 yuan/ton with no daily change. The price of LME copper 3M is 9,633 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars (0.27%), and the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.21, up 0.06 (0.74%) [2][5][7] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,325 yuan/ton, 78,160 yuan/ton, and 78,460 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.3%, 0.27%, 0.31%, and 0.28%. The changes in the corresponding spot premium/discount also vary [9] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 805.43 yuan/ton, down 38.61 yuan (- 4.57%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1484.65 yuan/ton, down 1.45 yuan (- 0.1%). Similar changes are seen in the non - tax - included spreads [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,349 tons, up 727 tons (3.71%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons, down 1,760 tons (- 53.12%) [15] Inventories - The total LME copper inventory is 141,750 tons, up 3,550 tons (2.57%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 259,681 tons, up 11,046 tons (4.44%) [17][20] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - The copper import profit is - 249.88 yuan/ton, down 87.93 yuan (54.29%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars (- 1.18%) [21]