南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent mild policy statements have revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform, cooling market sentiment. The market may return to the fundamental logic of supply - demand, and the coking coal near - month contract faces delivery pressure with short - term price correction pressure [4]. - The strict inspection of over - production in coking coal mines is true, which limits the coking coal开工率 in the second half of the year. The "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be released, and policy expectations will support the overall valuation of commodities. The pre - parade production limit expectation will support the finished product prices. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. - In terms of operation, due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the market, unilateral speculation is not recommended. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Dual - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. 3.2. Dual - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread. The hedging tools are jm2509&jm2601, the trading direction is to sell, and the recommended entry range is (-40, -30) [3]. 3.3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantities of various black commodities changed. For example, the quantity of rebar decreased by 2394 tons to 82640 tons, the quantity of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1176 tons to 55998 tons, the quantity of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, etc. [3] 3.4. Core Contradictions - The recent policy is mild, which has revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform. The market sentiment has cooled, and the market may return to the supply - demand fundamental logic. The coking coal near - month contract has delivery pressure and short - term price correction pressure. However, the coking coal production is restricted in the second half of the year, and policy expectations support the overall valuation of commodities. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. 3.5. Bullish Interpretations - There is still an expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. - The downstream steel mills have good profits, and raw materials have a basis for price increases. - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. 3.6. Bearish Interpretations - The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there is pressure on subsequent arrivals. - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has recovered, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. - The off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot flows into the market, pressuring the spot price [5]. 3.7. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - The report provides the coal and coke futures prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, inter - month spreads, on - disk coking profit, and various ratios such as the main mine - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main carbon - coal ratio, as well as their daily and weekly changes [6]. 3.8. Coal and Coke Spot Prices - The report shows the coal and coke spot prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, their price types, units, and daily and weekly changes, as well as import and export profits and the coking coal/thermal coal ratio [7][8].