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8月转债投资策略与关:赔率思维应对转债高估值环境

Group 1 - The report highlights that the convertible bond market is currently perceived as "expensive," with many participants focusing on short-term relative returns rather than long-term value [5][36][35] - The strategy emphasizes "odds thinking" over "winning rate thinking," suggesting that investors are more concerned with short-term profit potential in the current market environment [18][29] - The report introduces the "implied 3-month yield" indicator, which measures the speed of potential yield realization, indicating that the market lacks clear positioning signals at present [19][29] Group 2 - The report notes that the convertible bond index reached a new high in July, driven by strong performance in cyclical sectors and the photovoltaic industry, despite some underperformance in bank convertible bonds [5][6][29] - The strategy for August includes focusing on high-odds targets, maintaining a balanced industry distribution, and selecting bonds with high yield-to-maturity (YTM) [37][38][39] - Specific convertible bonds recommended for attention include Green Energy Convertible Bond, Pudong Development Bank Convertible Bond, and others, reflecting a focus on high-odds opportunities [38][39][40]