Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with ample growth potential [2]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 112.79 billion, 132.31 billion, and 155.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is expected to be 21.63 billion, 25.31 billion, and 29.96 billion RMB, with growth rates of 40%, 17%, and 18% respectively [10][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7,676 million RMB in 2023 to 15,586 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.1% in 2023, followed by 14.5%, 28.3%, 17.3%, and 17.8% in subsequent years [5][10]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 2,403 million RMB in 2023 to 4,909 million RMB in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from 1,459 million RMB in 2023 to 2,996 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 85% in 2024 [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, focusing on high-quality, short-shelf-life ingredients [22]. - The business model emphasizes a high-density store network supported by self-built cold chain logistics, allowing for cost-effective delivery of fresh ingredients [10][22]. - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, with projections of opening 2,500, 3,000, and 3,500 new stores from 2025 to 2027, respectively [17]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 29.66 HKD based on a projected PE ratio of 30x for 2025, which is above the industry average [20]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 57,790 million HKD [7]. Management and Governance - The management team is experienced, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and franchisee support [29][32]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founding team holding over 70% of the shares, ensuring alignment of interests [29][30]. Growth Potential - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are expected to be the main source of growth [10][22]. - The company is leveraging digital operations and a robust supply chain to enhance its competitive edge [10][22].
古茗（01364）：首次覆盖报告：供应链与运营为基大众现饮龙头成长可期