Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-05 11:09Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core View - As August approaches, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. Fundamentally, the near - term price has dropped and inventory has accumulated. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has started to decline slightly, and the supply output is expected to continue to recover. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the profit of chlor - alkali has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual launch of new production capacity, the supply pressure may gradually emerge [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) of the current volatility is 63.5% [1]. 2. Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can sell call options (SH2509, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2600 - 2650) to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 50 - 60) to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2350 - 2400) to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2400, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Futures Price - On August 5, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2690 (up 2 from the previous day, a daily increase of 0.07%); the 09 contract was 2506 (down 23, a daily decrease of - 0.91%); the 01 contract was 2592 (down 14, a daily decrease of - 0.54%) [2]. Futures Spread - The spread (5 - 9) was 184 (up 25 from the previous day); the spread (9 - 1) was - 86 (down 9); the spread (1 - 5) was - 98 (down 16) [2]. Basis - The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 128 (down 2); the basis of the 09 contract (Shandong Jinling) was 57 (up 23) [2]. Factory Price - For 32% caustic soda, the ex - factory prices of various brands in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day. For 50% caustic soda, the ex - factory price of Jinling dropped by 40 (- 1.6%), and that of Lutai increased by 40 (1.5%), while Beiyuan remained unchanged [3]. Market Price - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [4]. Brand/Regional Spread - The spread of Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda decreased by 20 on August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, while other spreads remained unchanged [4]. 4. Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09 contract, 01 contract in Shandong), but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [5][6].