Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-05 11:09Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - Futures Prices and Spreads: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].