Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-05 11:51Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment was reignited by the news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad such as the military parade, the Fed's interest rate cut game, and the Fourth Plenary Session. Investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game near the 09 contract delivery. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - Risk Management Strategy: For the arbitrage scenario of monthly spread arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), with a suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 5723 tons to 88363 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 55998 tons, iron ore remained unchanged at 3600 hands, coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, coke remained unchanged at 760 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 112 sheets to 21930 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 243 sheets to 77611 sheets [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - The news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines reignited market sentiment, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad. Near the 09 contract delivery, investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game, and the previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 4. Profit and Loss Analysis - Positive Factors: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases. There is room for policy expectation game before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - Negative Factors: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. Off - balance - sheet inventory in the spot - futures market flows into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 5. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke futures had different degrees of change, and the on - disk coking profit decreased from - 18 to - 50 [6]. - Spot Prices: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, most coal and coke spot prices remained unchanged, and the immediate coking profit increased from - 60 to - 12 [7]. 6. Import Profits and Ratios - Import Profits: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term agreement) decreased by 51 to 234 yuan/ton, the import profit of Australian coal (Peak Downs) increased by 15 to - 241 yuan/ton, etc [8]. - Ratios: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.39 to 2.4072 [8].