Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report by Guotai Junan Futures on August 6, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][4][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate in a narrow range [2][4] - Stainless Steel: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: It fluctuates widely, and the resource - end disturbances have not materialized [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: It has a weak fundamental pattern, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][14] - Polysilicon: There are increasing news - related disturbances [2][14] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,910, with various price and volume changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,960. There were also changes in import prices, premiums, and other industry - related data [5] - Macro and Industry News: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten mining quota periods; and some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines stopped due to losses [5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of 2509 and 2511 contracts changed compared to previous periods. There were also changes in spot - futures spreads, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [11] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. In July 2025, the domestic energy - storage market had significant tender and order volumes, with a high proportion of independent energy - storage projects [12][13] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: For industrial silicon, the Si2511 contract had changes in closing price, volume, and other indicators. For polysilicon, the PS2511 contract also showed corresponding changes. There were also changes in basis, prices, profits, and inventories [14] - Macro and Industry News: Hebei Province issued a notice on green - electricity direct - connection projects, with specific requirements for eligible projects and grid - connection ratios [15][16] - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), while polysilicon has a trend intensity of 1 (slightly bullish) [16]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250806