Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:32Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - Inventory Management: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - Raw Material Management: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - Likely Positive: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - Likely Negative: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - Futures: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - Spot: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - LME: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - COMEX: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]