Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:27Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 6, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the situation is delayed, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Key Data Price Volatility - Latest closing price: 267,490 yuan/ton; price range forecast (monthly): 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton; current volatility: 14.36%; current volatility historical percentile: 26.1% [2] Futures Disk Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main Contract | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous One | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous Three | yuan/ton | 267,660 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,300 | 175 | 0.53% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0.05 | 0.63% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,000 | 900 | 0.34% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,250 | 500 | 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 180,750 | 500 | 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,250 | 1000 | 0.37% | [13] Inventory Data | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Total | ton | 7283 | - 10 | - 0.14% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Guangdong | ton | 4848 | - 84 | - 1.7% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Shanghai | ton | 1564 | 74 | 4.97% | | LME Tin Inventory: Total | ton | 1900 | - 50 | - 2.56% | [22] Other Data - Tin import profit and loss: - 14,076.93 yuan/ton, daily change 1669.38 yuan, daily change rate - 10.6% - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [23] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Go short on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 275,000 yuan/ton; sell call options (SN2509C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: Go long on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 230,000 yuan/ton; sell put options (SN2509P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies; semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China; slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6]