光大期货农产品日报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to be volatile and weak. On Tuesday, corn's weighted contract positions increased, and the September contract gap - down led to an accelerated price decline. Spot trading weakened. With the approaching new - grain listing, the September positions are shifting to the November and January contracts, and the January contract continues to be weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to demand concerns. Domestically, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices rose. Although domestic supply is still abundant and inventories are rising, the market expects the inventory peak to decline and the basis to gradually return. A long - position strategy is recommended for soybean meal, and positive spreads for 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 can be considered [2]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil rose on Tuesday, supported by bargain - hunting and improved export expectations. Domestically, the three major oils are running strongly. A long - position strategy is recommended, along with selling put options [2]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile and weak. The main 2509 egg contract continued to decline on Tuesday, with a narrowing decline. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged, and the market sentiment is still pessimistic [2]. - Hogs are expected to be in a range - bound state. The main 2509 hog contract fluctuated and adjusted on Tuesday. Currently, the supply side exerts pressure on hog prices, while policies provide support. Attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: The futures price is falling, and the spot trading is weak. The price in North China is generally stable, and the price in the sales area is falling. Technically, the September contract has fallen below 2300 yuan, and the January contract is weak under the pressure of a bumper harvest [2]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell due to demand concerns. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, with sufficient supply and rising inventories, but the market expects the inventory peak to decline [2]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose, while US soybean oil and Canadian canola fell. Domestically, the three major oils are strong, supported by a warm market atmosphere and slow procurement in the fourth quarter [2]. - Eggs: The main contract continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. The spot price is mostly stable in the production area and mostly falling in the sales area. The fundamental bearish pattern remains unchanged [2]. - Hogs: The main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price is slightly adjusted, with sufficient supply and mediocre terminal demand. Policies support hog prices, and attention should be paid to short - term low - level buying opportunities [3]. Market Information - As of August 3, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 970,000 tons, compared with 1.3 million tons in the same period of the previous year [3]. - US private exporters reported selling 128,000 tons of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 sales year [3]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with a year - on - year change of 13.02%. The average sales price was 14.30 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year change of - 21.86%. The sales revenue was 11.639 billion yuan, with a year - on - year change of - 10.41% [4]. - EU officials stated that the 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US is all - inclusive, including the most - favored - nation tariff [4]. - Malaysia plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to speed up the national replanting process [4].