碳酸锂日报（2025年8月6日）-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the market sentiment subsided, lithium prices fell from their highs. The market's focus is on the uncertainty of whether the Jianxiaowo mine will shut down. After the concentrated destocking of warehouse receipts, there is a certain amount of re - inflow, but the current total remains low. In the long term, attention should be paid to the further cost - reduction and production - increase actions of overseas mines [4] - On the supply side, the weekly production continued to slow down, with a weekly decrease of 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons. However, with the price rebound, it is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of the two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory saw its first destocking since the end of May last week, but there is still about 142,000 tons [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 2.65% to 67,680 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton. In terms of warehouse receipts, there was a concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts yesterday, and the inventory increased by 1,840 tons to 14,443 tons [4] - In terms of news, on August 5th, according to Cailian Press, the Australian Resources Minister said that Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects; Xinyu High - tech Ecological Environment Bureau released the "Pre - approval Publicity of the Annual Expansion Project of 30,000 Tons of High - Purity Lithium Salt in Zhongkuang Resources (002738) (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd."; Core's restart research shows that it can reduce costs and increase production, and it also terminated the off - take agreement with Yahua [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 1,080 yuan/ton to 67,840 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 67,300 yuan/ton. Among lithium ores, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,710 yuan/ton, while the price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 5,275 yuan/ton [5][6] - For lithium salts, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 71,200 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 69,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 65,540 yuan/ton [6] - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 70 yuan/ton to - 5,660 yuan/ton [6] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phosphorus - lithium - aluminum ore (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - Price Differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18] - Precursors & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [21][26] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from December 12, 2024, to July 31, 2025 [33][36] - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to 2025 [37][38] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [41] - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [42] - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [42]