Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-06 10:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the asphalt supply increases due to the resumption of some refineries in Shandong, while the demand is suppressed by typhoon weather in South and East China, rainfall in North China, and the persistent shortage of funds. The overall fundamentals are weakening, and the absolute price fluctuates due to the cost of crude oil. The monthly spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, as autumn approaches, the construction conditions in the north and south will improve, and the construction will enter the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 will speed up, and the funds will be alleviated. The peak season is still worth looking forward to [2]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in August 2025 is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short 25% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton according to their inventory [1]. - Procurement Management: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy 50% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Market Data | Region | 2025 - 08 - 06 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 05 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 04 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 07 - 30 Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (yuan/ton) | Weekly Change (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Spot | 3750 | 3770 | 3785 | 3785 | - 20 | - 35 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 0 | 0 | | North China Spot | 3660 | 3680 | 3700 | 3720 | - 20 | - 60 | | South China Spot | 3580 | 3580 | 3590 | 3580 | 0 | 0 | | Shandong Spot 09 Basis | 195 | 226 | 212 | 135 | - 31 | 60 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot 09 Basis | 225 | 236 | 207 | 130 | - 11 | 95 | | North China Spot 09 Basis | 105 | 136 | 127 | 70 | - 31 | 35 | | South China Spot 09 Basis | 25 | 36 | 17 | - 70 | - 11 | 95 | | Shandong Spot to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 163.4285 | 166.8943 | 162.4854 | 131.7688 | - 3.4658 | 31.6597 | | Futures Main to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 125.1318 | 127.7311 | 125.7482 | 108.3749 | - 2.5993 | 16.7569 | [5][8] 3.4. Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, and manufacturers have a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south; the atmosphere of "anti - involution" sets off a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][7]. - Negative Factors: The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased recently; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7].